The Dynamics of Security in the Asia-Pacific Region,

Rapid change in the Asia-Pacific Region APR-including explosive economic growth and the shifts in regional political and security perceptions this growth will generate-will present new problems and opportunities for U.S. defense planning in the next 15 years. Yet elements of continuity will remain, notably the critical importance of the U.S.-Japan defense relationship and continued basing of U.S. forces in that country for stability throughout the region. This will be true even as economic power becomes relatively more important than military power in Asian affairs, and as the United States becomes more interdependent with, and vulnerable to, developments in Asian economies. The Navy will become a proportionately larger element of U.S. force presence in the Pacific, carrying more of the burden of preserving regional balance and maintaining the informal security system that has evolved since 1950. Apart from Korea, no formal region-wide or subregional security structures or force-related confidence-building arrangements on the European model are in prospect. Peacetime fleet missions in the APR will focus on reassurance and on deterrence of a diffuse range of threats to regional stability. Region-wide arms modernization will reflect economic growth more than reactive arms races, unless the U.S. balancing role in regional security loses credibility. Sea and air forces will expand, but there will be no significant military challenge to U.S. forces in the Pacific. Yet distance and, especially, the perceptions of regional states require that fleet units be regionally based surge capability, transitory presence, or assignment or earmarking of externally based forces will not be substitutes.