Pharmaceutical Inventory Forecasting at the Wright-Patterson Medical Center.

This research was conducted to determine the accuracy of statistical forecasting techniques forecasting the inventory of pharmaceutical items. Because pharmaceutical items are subject to a degree of seasonality of demand, the Director of Medical Logistics at the Wright-patterson Medical Center believed that the use of such techniques may provide a more accurate forecast for the items stocked by the Outpatient Pharmacy. In addition to the technique used by the Outpatient Pharmacy the 12 month simple moving average three statistical forecasting methods were employed the 6 month simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and the Winters exponential smoothing. These techniques were used to obtain forecasts, and the results were analyzed for measurement error. The Winters exponential smoothing method prove superior in nearly all cases, and offers the best potential for use. jg p.13