Enemy Course of Action Prediction: Can We, Should We?

This monograph finds that the US Armys decision making process taught in its schools and branch courses relies too heavily on an iterative analytical method called the Deliberate Decision Making Process or DDMP. Within this process there exists a Catch-22 in which an operations planner desires an enemy course of action COA prediction before developing a friendly COA. He usually receives this from an intelligence planner. Likewise, the intelligence planner desires a friendly COA from which to base a prediction of enemy intentions. Which comes first There is no standardized method units use to answer this. The DDMP is sequential and iterative by nature. It takes time and often bases friendly plans on a predicted enemy COA most dangerous or most likely rather than on merely a determination of enemy capabilities. In a time constrained environment, basing a plan on predicted enemy intentions is risky.