A Change in the Navy's Drug Testing Policy: How Will it Affect Costs and the Probability of Detecting Drug Users.

This thesis analyzes changes in the Navys drug testing policy as they relate to costs and the probability of detecting a gaming or non-gaming drug user. Additionally, this thesis considers actual command level testing policies showing how a policy change would affect the commands probability of detecting a drug user. The Navys zero tolerance policy for drug use has significantly reduced drug use within the Navy. This zero tolerance policy is primarily enforced with the drug testing program. Great leeway is given to commanding officers in their enforcement of this policy. Results from the Worldwide Survey have shown that drug abuse remains a problem for junior enlisted. Self reported drug use in the past year for junior enlisted is 17 percent. But, urinalysis results do not reflect this nigh value. Probability models, developed by NPRDC and a total costs model described in this thesis, show that a simple change in the manner in which drug testing is conducted will reduce drug use, minimize the costs of drug use to the Navy and decrease the amount of time till a drug abuser is detected.