Blainey and the Bottom-Up Review: Increased Potential for Miscalculation and War in the 21st Century

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: ADA284613 | Open PDF

Abstract:

On 1 September, 1993, Secretary of Defense Les Aspin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Colin Powell announced the results of the Clinton Administrations Bottom-up Review BUR, to determine Americas future defense needs. This analysis of the BUR identifies discrepancies with the methodology and underlying assumptions of the BUR. These flaws, in turn, resulted in serious deficiencies in the results of this important work. The BURs point of departure for an examination of future defense needs was the 1991 demise of the Soviet Union. Rather than develop a comprehensive picture of the nature of war and peace in the 21st Century as a basis for force planning, the BUR assumes limited wars of the DESERT STORM variety are the model for future conflict. Contemporary scholars such as Samuel Huntington, John Keegan, and Alvin and Heidi Toffler disagree with this assumption. They point to a clash of civilizations in the next century and an increased potential for violent cultural conflict. Such conflicts tend to be protracted and costly, not limited. The BURs assumption concerning peace fail the test of history as provided by Geoffery Blaineys exhaustive study of the causes of war and peace since 1700. The BURs assumptions are that the best guarantors of peace are a thriving web of free trading relationships and an international partnership of democratic nations. As Blainey comments, free trade and democracy may have caused more international war than peace. The strategy, force structure and budget of the BUR actually increase the potential for international miscalculation and war.

Author(s):
Nicholson, Jr, John W.
Author Organization(s):
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
Descriptive Note:
Monograph
Pagination:
0058

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release, Document Partially Illegible
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release; Distribution Is Unlimited. Document Partially Illegible.

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Monitor Series:
USACGSC/SAMS
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_1.1_Force Management; JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_8_Building Partnerships; JCA_3_Force Application; JCA_8.1_Communicate; JCA_3.2_Engagement; JCA_3.2.1_Kinetic Means; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_7.2.1_Mitigate Lethal Effects; JCA_7.2_Mitigate; JCA_7_Protection; JCA_8.1.3_Influence Adversary and Competitor Audiences; JCA_5.2_Understand; JCA_8.2_Shape; JCA_1.1.1_Global Force Management; JCA_5.2.2_Develop Knowledge and Situational Awareness; JCA_1.2_Force Preparation; JCA_3.1.1_Maneuver to Engage; JCA_3.1_Maneuver; JCA_6.4.1_Secure Information Exchange
Modernization Areas:
Space
Communities of Interest:
Energy and Power Technologies
Descriptor(s):
*NATIONAL SECURITY, *MILITARY PLANNING, *MILITARY BUDGETS, *DEFENSE PLANNING, METHODOLOGY, MILITARY STRATEGY, FORECASTING, CATALYTIC CONFLICT(WARFARE), THREAT EVALUATION, MILITARY FORCE LEVELS, HISTORY, ERRORS, MILITARY DOCTRINE, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Field(s)/Group(s):
Administration and Management, Economics and Cost Analysis, Government and Political Science, Humanities and History, Military Forces and Organizations, Defense Systems, Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
Keyword(s):
*BOTTOM UP REVIEW, FUTURE WARS, 21ST CENTURY, POST COLD WAR ERA, NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY, CLINTON WILLIAM, BLAINEY GEOFFREY, DOWNSIZING, MILITARY FORCE STRUCTURE
Report Date:
1994 May 06