Threat Theory: A Model for Forecasting the Threat Environment of the Future

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: ADA274021 | Open PDF

Abstract:

A new environment, a new paradigm faces United States policy and decision makers. The bipolar world of superpower control and confrontation has been replaced with an unipolar world lead by the United States. A rapid evolution is occurring. A multipolar world is developing composed nation states and non-nation states competing against each other and the United States to promote and protect their vital interests. This new environment confronts this nation with a growing number of unknowns and difficult choices. In such conditions, a logical assumption is that any nation state that can accurately forecast future trends, events, and likely threats will have a distinct advantage. The reality is that there are many pundits proposing a kaleidoscope of possible threats. There is no consistent methodology to identify those nation states and non-nation states that are and will evolve into threats. The lack of a viable forecast results in a fragile and ineffectual grand strategy. History is replete with examples of the penalties to nation states that fail to anticipate and correctly understand a new geopolitical environment. Threat forecasting, Campaign planning, Grand strategy, Military force structure, Force development.

Author(s):
Bruns, Larry D.
Author Organization(s):
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
Descriptive Note:
Monograph
Pagination:
0069

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release; Distribution Is Unlimited.

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Monitor Series:
USACGSC/SAMS
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_8_Building Partnerships; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_8.2_Shape; JCA_8.2.2_Provide Aid to Foreign Partners and Institutions; JCA_5.1.1_Establish and Maintain Unity of Effort with Mission Partners; JCA_5.1_Organize; JCA_8.1_Communicate; JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_5.5_Direct; JCA_5.5.1_Communicate Intent and Guidance; JCA_8.1.3_Influence Adversary and Competitor Audiences; JCA_5.3.3_Develop Strategy; JCA_5.3.1_Analyze Problem; JCA_2_Battlespace Awareness; JCA_2.1_Planning and Direction; JCA_2.1.2_Develop Strategies; JCA_1.1_Force Management; JCA_5.3.2_Apply Situational Understanding; JCA_1.3_Human Capital Management; JCA_1.3.1_Personnel and Family Support
Modernization Areas:
Space
Communities of Interest:
Counter WMD
Descriptor(s):
*FOREIGN POLICY, *MILITARY STRATEGY, *THREATS, *UNITED STATES, *FORECASTING, CONTROL, COMPETITION, DECISION MAKING, PLANNING, CONFRONTATION, SELECTION, HISTORY, GEOPOLITICS, STRUCTURES, MODELS, STRATEGY, ENVIRONMENTS, POLICIES, NATIONS, METHODOLOGY
Field(s)/Group(s):
Government and Political Science, Geography, Military Forces and Organizations
Keyword(s):
*MILITARY THREATS, THREAT FORECASTING, CAMPAIGN PLANNING, GRAND STRATEGY, MILITARY FORCE STRUCTURE, FORCE DEVELOPMENT, MULTIPOLAR WORLD, FUTURISM, THREAT THEORY
Report Date:
1993 May 14