START II: Thinking One Move Ahead

At their 1990 summit, Presidents Bush and Gorbachev issued a joint statement setting general goals for negotiation of a follow-on treaty to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty START. President Bushs historic speech on September 27, 1991, reinforced these goals and specified several actions the United States U.S. would take. This report examines possible provisions of START II and resultant force structures, together with their implications for achieving the summit goals, for verifiability, and for U.S. force planning. This look ahead will contribute to advance planning of appropriate negotiating positions, verification research and development R and D, and force modernization and restructuring. The signing of START is a remarkable milestone on the path of arms control. It is the first treaty to actually reduce strategic arms, and it provides for effective and intrusive verification that will set a precedent for future treaties. Although it does not achieve the originally advertised 50 reductions in all strategic arms, it comes close to this goal in the most threatening category deployed ballistic missile warheads. The goals for post-START negotiations are to reduce further the risk of outbreak of... nuclear war, and to ensure strategic stability....This will be achieved by seeking agreements that improve survivability, and remove incentives for a nuclear first strike....The leaders further agreed to seek measures to reduce the concentration of warheads on strategic delivery vehicles as a whole, including measures related to the question of heavy missiles and MIRVed ICBMs. President Bushs September 1991 speech reinforced the focus on landbased MIRVs.