U.S. and Cuban Relations: Prospects for the Future

The United States broke diplomatic relations with Cuba in January 1961 following the Castro led Cuban Revolution. Since that time U.S.-Cuba relations have not been a model for foreign policy. A brief history of United States and Cuban foreign policies is described and an analysis of the failure of both policies is offered. A continuing United States policy of economic and diplomatic isolation of Cuba is recommended until Castros death. Possible post- Castro scenarios include a transition from a charismatic dictatorship to a populist socialist regime, a violent overthrow of the present communist regime, or a peaceful takeover of the government by a sector of the current regime. The most likely scenario is peaceful takeover and the Cuban military can accomplish the task. The United States could influence the military transition government by increasing the military-to-military contacts with Cuban military. Additionally, the United States could assist in developing an economic assistance program that will create a stronger Cuban economy that is closely tied but not dependent on the United States. These policy initiatives could assist the elimination of the last vestige of communism in the Western Hemisphere.