Defense and Eastern Europe: A Comment

The papers in this section examine East European economic inputs into defense Deutch, trends in defense budgets Alton, military outputs Bielli, and intraregional patterns of military inputs and outputs Nelson. They all chart with exception of some of Altons indices, declines in Eastern Europes contributions to the Warsaw Pact arms industries are not being modernized, budgets are declining in real terms, procurement of new weapons systems has been slow, and East European military commitments continue to be far less than those of the Soviets, even accounting for differences in status and size. This comment examines the decline of Eastern Europes military commitment to the Warsaw Pact in the context of these papers. It first discusses how we know what we know, i. e., the sources of information on the economic side of East European military efforts. It then compares several indicators and what they imply about trends in military spending and force modernization. The paper proceeds to assess constraints on military modernization imposed by demographic, social, and economic trends in Eastern Europe and to suggest why East European governments have not tried to increase or sustain past levels of effort. The comment concludes with a discussion of the policies Western countries could adopt to influence East European government decisions on allocations to the military.