On Naval Actions and Reactions in Limited Warfare

This document provides a high-level assessment of potential military threats from nations unaligned with NATO or the Warsaw Pact in the current world of unstable politics and economics. The physical potential for military threat from unaligned nations is assessed, first by warfare area and then by geographic region. Tables are given showing the strengths of various nations categorized by warfare area and then cross-categorized by geographic region. The political and economic underpinnings of contingency and limited objective warfare CALOW are examined. The nature of politically likely low-intensity action is defined, including partial blockade, limited invasion, evacuation of personnel at risk, persistent harassment, and forms of coercion. Seven fabricated scenarios to illustrate these threats are provided. In the first five scenarios, the U.S. is conducting operations of the types listed above in the last two, the U.S. is countering persistent harrassment and extortion. The common characteristics of these diverse threats are pulled together within the framework of the maritime environment, economic and manpower considerations, the influence of arms resales, the NBC threat, and the possibility of a powerful coalition of nations which are not powerful singly. The document closes with comments about the requirements on the U.S. Navy in the CALOW environment. EDC