U.S. Economic Leverage and the Soviet Union,

This paper presents a disaggregate model of the workings of economic leverage. The model identifies factors that influence the probability of success in any attempt to use leverage, and those that affect the costs of making such an attempt. The model is used to identify areas of agreement and of controversy in the debate over the efficacy of leverage, and reveals more agreement than might be apparent from the acrimonious literature on the subject. Analysis using the model suggests that the quality of the debate--and the likelihood of achieving some consensus--might improve if participants were to eschew their previous reliance on anecdote and historical example and concentrate instead on gathering systematic information on specific factors that influence leverage outcome.