Optimal Ship Positions for Naval Battle Group Defense Problems

This report presents an optimization model to maximize the survival probability of a carrier operating in a Battle Group BG environment given AAW anti-air warfare and ASW anti-sub warfare resources. The model is a static, probabilistic, two-dimensional representation. Developed are several probabilistic and parametric relationships, including 1 the probability that a ship kills a target 2 the optimum intercept distance 3 the effect of the ships distance to the carrier 4 the probability distributions of the targets, and 5 the survival probability of the carrier. The solution to the problem is the optimum location of the AAW and ASW ships with respect to the carrier those locations that maximize the probability of survival of the carrier, from the AAW and ASW threats.