Differences in Estimates of North Korea's GNP,

Estimates of North Koreas gross national product have been made by a number of agencies in South Korea and in the United States. These estimates vary widely, by as much as a factor of two. Moreover, most of the sources do not fully explain the methods used. However, the principal causes of the differences seem to fall into two categories differing concepts of national income and the products on which estimates are based, and different values used in measuring population, foreign exchange rate, economic growth rate, and price indexes. Comparative analyses among several of the sources are shown for various components of GNP, including agricultural and industrial production, and foreign trade. The component estimates vary by factors ranging from 140 percent to over 230. In general, estimates by American agencies tend to be high, based primarily on the official figures published by the North Korean government, while South Korean agencies tend toward lower estimates using data derived from private sources or personal judgments. In evaluating North Koreas, economic ability to sustain a high level of military effort over the next decade, these differences and their causes should be taken carefully into account. Author