Possible Counterforce Role for the Typhoon.

A recent August 1981 article by Vice-Admiral K. Stalbo, one of the most eminent Soviet naval spokesmen, merits interest for revealing what appears to be a new role for the Soviet Navys ballistic-missile submarines SSBNs. In our judgment this is a significant statement by Stalbo, all the more credible for being esoterically expressed. It strongly implies, given the modalities of Soviet discourse, that their SSBNs have a strategic counterforce role over and above that assigned them in the past. In this connection, attention is aroused by a recent press report crediting the new Soviet Typhoon-class SSBN, now undergoing sea trials, with the capability of pushing up through the Artic ice cover and launching its missiles against military targets in the U.S. from a range several thousand miles shorter than presently expected. This might significantly impair the chances for U.S. warning. If we are correct in our interpretation of the counterforce implications of the Stalbo, article, and if the Soviet navys new counterforce role is linked with Typhoon, this would be consistent with the Soviet historical record of revising force-employment doctrine, not necessarily on the basis of capabilities already at hand, but on the basis of capabilities expected to emerge during the current five-year planning period. The Russians tell us that their doctrine looks no further than five years ahead. Practice indicates that the five-year doctrinal periods run concurrently with the five-year economic plans, with major doctrinal reviews which may or may not issue in doctrinal innovations normally taking place at the turn of the five-year planning periods. Author