Cloud Forecast Simulation Model.

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: ADA113540 | Open PDF

Abstract:

The cloud forecast simulation model generates synthetic worldwide 3- hour total cloud cover forecast fields at 50-nautical mile resolution. The synthetic forecasts are generated stochastically, based on input verifying observed total cloud cover fields, in such a manner that the agreement between the synthetic cloud forecast field and its verifying observed field is no better or worse than the agreement between actual cloud prognoses and their verifying observations. Moreover, a sawtooth wave submodel is used to insure the synthetic cloud forecast fields have the same spatial correlation as actual cloud prognoses have. Thus, the cloud forecast simulation model generates synthetic total cloud cover forecast fields that have the same skill and spatial correlation as the operational forecast product has. The model is used to generate meteorological input to system planning and optimization simulations and system design studies. The sawtooth wave submodel could also be used to generate synthetic two-dimensional observed weather fields as well as cloud forecasts.

Author(s):
Whiton, Roger C. ; Berecek, Emil M. ; Sladen, John C.
Author Organization(s):
AIR FORCE ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL APPLICATIONS CENTER SCOTT AFB IL
Descriptive Note:
Technical note,
Pagination:
0134

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Report Number(s):
USAFETAC/TN-81/004, SBI-AD-E850 149
Monitor Series:
AD-E850 149
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_6_Net Centric; JCA_6.4.1_Secure Information Exchange; JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_1.4_Force Support; JCA_1.2_Force Preparation; JCA_6.2.1_Information Sharing; JCA_6.2.2_Computing Services; JCA_1.4.1_Force Health Protection; JCA_6.4_Information Assurance; JCA_6.2_Enterprise Services
Communities of Interest:
Materials and Manufacturing Processes
Descriptor(s):
*CLOUDS, *CLOUD COVER, *NORMALIZING(STATISTICS), CLIMATE, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, FORECASTING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SAWTOOTH WAVEFORMS, SIMULATION, WEATHER, METEOROLOGY
Field(s)/Group(s):
Meteorology
Keyword(s):
Cloud forecasting, Cloud forecast simulation, Correlation, environment, Environmental simulation, FCLDO(Cloud Forecast Simulation Model Level O), Forecast observation correlation, Forecast simulation, Great circle distance, Gringorten model B, Nephanalysis, Scale distance, Skill, Skill matrix, Spatial correlation, Stochastic modeling, Tetrachoric correlation, Cloud models, LPN USAFETAC 2339
Report Date:
1981 Oct 01