Forecasting Skill

The accuracy of centrally produced prognoses has improved throughout the past 20 years however, several studies have shown negligible improvement in weather forecasting. Available data, more than 100 journal articles, were reviewed to independently evaluate weather forecasting improvement. Overall forecasting skill improved for most weather elements however, improvement was not obtained by all. This led to a review of other factors education, experience, interest, and procedures that might be important in determining forecasting skill. After basic education and experience have been achieved 2-3 months, the main factor contributing to forecasting skill was found to be forecaster motivation. The AWS emphasis on accurate weather forecasting apparently has been effective, and should be continued.