A Manual for Encoding Probability Distributions.

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: ADA092259 | Open PDF

Abstract:

Accounting for the uncertainty in most decision problems requires the application of the knowledge of one or more experts. In decision analysis, a process of probability encoding is used to convert specialized or general knowledge into probability distributions to represent the judgement of these experts. This manual presents the probability encoding methods that have proved to be most effective in providing a precise language for communication about uncertainty. The interview process described herein has been found to be an efficient method for eliciting the uncertainty in a persons information. The manual details the careful interaction between the interviewer decision analyst and the subject whose judgment is encoded. The encoding process not only provides the user with an awareness of the many problems that may arise in an encoding situation, but also improves the subjects awareness of his state of information. Author

Author(s):
Stael Von Holstein, Cari-axel S. ; Matheson, James E.
Author Organization(s):
DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA
Descriptive Note:
Final rept.,
Supplementary Note:
Prepared in cooperation with SRI International, Menlo Park, CA.
Pagination:
0226

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Contract/Grant Number(s):
N00014-78-C-0100
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_5.3.1_Analyze Problem; JCA_5.4_Decide; JCA_5.3.2_Apply Situational Understanding; JCA_7.2_Mitigate; JCA_7_Protection; JCA_7.2.1_Mitigate Lethal Effects; JCA_5.5_Direct; JCA_5.2_Understand; JCA_5.2.2_Develop Knowledge and Situational Awareness; JCA_5.5.3_Establish Metrics; JCA_1.3.2_Personnel Management; JCA_5.4.5_Intuit; JCA_1.2.3_Educating; JCA_1.2.7_Experimentation; JCA_1.2.1_Training; JCA_4.3_Maintain; JCA_5.5.2_Task; JCA_1.2.5_Lessons Learned; JCA_4.6_Engineering
Communities of Interest:
Human Systems
Descriptor(s):
*STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, *DECISION THEORY, ALGORITHMS, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, METHODOLOGY, DECISION MAKING, SPECIFICATIONS, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, TEST METHODS, SURVEYS, USER NEEDS, BIAS, MACHINE CODING, CONFIDENCE LEVEL, INSTRUCTION MANUALS, CONFIDENCE LIMITS
Field(s)/Group(s):
Operations Research, Computer Programming and Software
Keyword(s):
PEP(Probability Encoding Program), PEP computer program, LPN SRI 7078
Report Date:
1978 Sep 01