Expert Estimate Method of Generating Maintenance and Manpower Data for Proposed Air Force Systems: Evaluation.

The objectives of this study were to exercise an expert estimate method of generating maintenance and manpower data for new systems, to determine the accuracy of the estimated data, to evaluate a prototype guide describing the expert estimate method, to collect cost data for implementing the method, and to prepare a users manual for the expert estimate method. Seventy Air Force technicians having one of three ground radar Air Force Specialty Codes participated as expert estimators. These technicians estimated maintenance, manpower, and training requirements for a new operational ground radar system. The estimators had no experience on the radar system and used only an early design phase engineering description of the system as the basis for their estimates. The accuracy of the estimated data was determined by comparing the estimates with the operational data collected on the radar system. Results indicate that technicians can estimate maintenance task time, crew size, skill level, career fieldAFSC requirements, and training times with acceptable levels of accuracy. The method also produced derived person-hour for troubleshooting and specific off-equipment maintenance tasks were not accurately estimated. The prototype users guide recommendations were generally supported in the areas of engineering description package and questionnaire preparation, qualifications of estimators, and analyses of estimated data. The person-hours cost data indicated that the minimum number of raters should be increased to 25, and that the expert estimate method seems to be an inexpensive and rapid method of obtaining maintenance manpower data.