Design of a National Skills Market Model for Air Force Enlisted Personnel

This technical report documents the detailed specifications developed in this study describing feasible options available for designing and implementing the National Skills Market Model - an empirically based forecasting model of economic activity in the industrial and occupational labor markets in which the Air Force competes for labor. Essentially, the model formulated in this study consists of three basic analytic components which, in combination, produce detailed forecasts of national labor market conditions, and generate projections in the total accession and retention of Air Force enlisted personnel. The basic analytic components include a non-military labor market module, a population projection module, and an accessionretention rate forecasting module. Each of these components is then subdivided into one or more analytic elements which address distinct aspects of the general issue examined in the analytic component. In all, nine analytic elements are included in the modular design of the model. The report describes the functions to be performed by each of the analytic components and elements, and specifies the procedures through which each element has been designed to accomplish its functions. Recommendations for the development and implementation of the model are presented also. Detailed supporting information is provided in appendices. Author