MBFR: Problems and Prospects,

The purpose of this paper is to assess the state of the Mutual Force Reduction MFR talks presently underway in Vienna, and to examine the possibilities for progress in the near future. The analysis begins with an examination of the initial postwar military and political milieu and its impact on the current negotiations. Included in the subsequent analysis are discussions on the conventional balance in the Guidelines Area the impact of recent technological innovations on the conventional balance the role of both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons in the talks and the major proposals offered by the two alliances. Additionally, the proposals are viewed from the perspectives of the various participants both inter and intra-alliance politics, with a view towards predicting possible concessions on the major stumbling blocks to an agreement, such as collectivity and parity, the data issue and the geographical problem. Finally, the paper evaluates the prospects for progress under the current negotiating environment, and concludes with a suggestion for a possible new approach for NATO at Vienna. Author