Short Range Thunderstorm Forecasting for Aviation.

During the reporting period, the authors have 1 Tested and compared several 10-, 30-, and 60-minute forecasts of thundery activity, made by three different echo-tracking models from 10- and 30-minute sequences of digitized zero-degree radar data 2 Made experimental 10- and 30-minute forecasts, by one of the models, from patterns of vertically integrated liquid water content VIL and 3 Derived an experimental regression equation capable of producing 2-6 hr forecasts of thunderstorms from manually digitized radar data, hourly surface observations, and predicted 500-mb temperatures.