Historical and Forecasted Aeronautical Cost Indices.

This report presents both historic and forecasted aerospace cost indices for cost estimators at the Aeronautical Systems Division, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. Utilizing both Bureau of Labor Statistics and ASD Cost Library data, historical cost indices for six segments of the aerospace industry were developed. The segments are airframe development, airframe production, engine development, engine production, avionics development and avionics production. These data are applicable to ASD programs from 1958 to 1972 and provide one input into the forecasting of future indices for these segments. The forecasts cover the ten-year period, 1973 through 1982. The historical data was correlated with the history of the GNP deflator and this exercise was combined with the Wharton Econometric Forecasting Unit predictions of the GNP deflator for the next ten years to produce the forecasted numbers. Instructive examples of the use of these indices in constructing escalation factors and then in the use of these factors to adjust cost estimates are presented. Author