Quantitative Methods for Long-Range Environmental Forecasting. Long-Wave European Projections. Volume 2. Technical Volume

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: ADA022658 | Open PDF

Abstract:

The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide a basis for the improvements of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This volume provides the technical discussion of the model that was developed to forecast values of five central environmental descriptors for the European environment of the 1985-1995 period. The descriptor variables considered were international conflict, international alignment, national power base, internal instability, and international trade. The structure of the model consists of 12 equations which specify the various components of the descriptor variables. The coefficients of the model which is block-recursive are estimated using the least squares method. Forecasts of the five central environmental descriptors are provided by simulation of the model. Author

Author(s):
Franco, G. R. ; Weil, Herman M. ; Greenberg, Aaron ; German, Larry ; Hartwick, Douglas
Author Organization(s):
CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA
Descriptive Note:
Interim technical rept. no. 4, Mar 1973-Feb 1974
Supplementary Note:
See also Volume 3, ADA022659.
Pagination:
0536

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release; Distribution Is Unlimited.

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Report Number(s):
CACI-74031-VOL-2
Contract/Grant Number(s):
DAHC15-71-C-0201, ARPA ORDER-2067
Monitor Series:
DARPA
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_8_Building Partnerships; JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_8.1_Communicate; JCA_8.1.3_Influence Adversary and Competitor Audiences; JCA_8.2_Shape; JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_5.3.1_Analyze Problem; JCA_7.2.1_Mitigate Lethal Effects; JCA_7.2_Mitigate; JCA_7_Protection; JCA_8.1.1_Inform Domestic and Foreign Audiences; JCA_1.4_Force Support; JCA_1.4.1_Force Health Protection; JCA_5.5_Direct; JCA_8.2.2_Provide Aid to Foreign Partners and Institutions; JCA_5.3.3_Develop Strategy; JCA_5.3.4_Develop Courses of Action; JCA_5.3.5_Analyze Courses of Action; JCA_8.2.1_Partner with Governments and Institutions; JCA_5.5.1_Communicate Intent and Guidance
Modernization Areas:
Cyber
Communities of Interest:
Energy and Power Technologies
Descriptor(s):
*ECONOMETRICS, *EUROPE, *POLITICAL SCIENCE, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC MODELS, ENVIRONMENTS, FORECASTING, FOREIGN POLICY, GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN), INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, LONG RANGE(TIME), MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), OPERATIONS RESEARCH, RANKING, USSR, WARSAW PACT COUNTRIES
Field(s)/Group(s):
Economics and Cost Analysis, Government and Political Science
Report Date:
1974 Mar 01