Acquisition and Use of MANPADS Against Commercial Aviation: Risks, Proliferation, Mitigation, and Cost of an Attack

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: AD1090527 | Open PDF

Abstract:

Since 1975, upwards of 60 civilian aircraft have been hit by surface to-air missile platforms known as man-portable air defense systemsMANPADS, resulting in the deaths of over 1,000 civilians. Terrorist groups like al-Qaeda, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and Lebanese Hezbollah are thought to possess MANPADS, presenting an ongoing concern for civilian air travel in the modern political climate. Although a MANPADS attack on a civilian aircraft has not been attempted since 2007, the threat of MANPADS attacks remains, and so does the need to develop a better understanding of the security risks posed by these systems. The loss of life from a MANPADS incident could be severe and have grave international repercussions. The research summarized in this report aims to provide analysis of the key issues of this international security challenge.

Author(s):
Zeigler, Sean M. ; Hou, Alexander C. ; Martini, Jeffrey ; Norton, Daniel M. ; Phillips, Brian ; Schwille, Michael ; Strong, Aaron ; Vest, Nathan
Author Organization(s):
RAND ARROYO CENTER SANTA MONICA CA SANTA MONICA United States
Descriptive Note:
Technical Report
Pagination:
0127

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release;

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Report Number(s):
RR4304
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_7_Protection; JCA_7.2_Mitigate; JCA_7.2.1_Mitigate Lethal Effects; JCA_7.1.1_Prevent Kinetic Attack; JCA_7.1_Prevent; JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_5.3.4_Develop Courses of Action; JCA_5.3.5_Analyze Courses of Action; JCA_5.3.2_Apply Situational Understanding; JCA_2.1_Planning and Direction; JCA_2.1.4_Evaluation; JCA_5.2_Understand; JCA_1.2.1_Training; JCA_5.2.3_Share Knowledge and Situational Awareness; JCA_1.2.5_Lessons Learned; JCA_4.1_Deployment and Distribution; JCA_JCA_4.1.2_Sustain the Force; JCA_4.3_Maintain; JCA_4_Logistics; JCA_1.3.2_Personnel Management
Modernization Areas:
Directed Energy; Space; 5G
Communities of Interest:
Weapons Technologies
Descriptor(s):
air force, aircrafts, anti tank missiles, warfare, national security, air defense, contingency operations (military), defense systems, surface to air missiles, terrorists, passenger aircraft, warning systems, commercial aviation, aircraft equipment, aircraft industry, airframes, transport aircraft, commercial aircraft, geography
Field(s)/Group(s):
Rockets, Commercial and General Aviation
Keyword(s):
MANPADS(man portable air defense systems), DIRCM(directed infrared countermeasures), FTO(foreign terrorist organization), IR(infrared), LAIRCM(Large Aircraft Infrared Counter Measure), MWS(missile warning system), PSSM(physical storage stockpile management), SHiELD(Self Protect High Energy Laser Demonstrator)
Report Date:
2019 Jan 01
Creation Date:
2020 Jan 31