A New Great Game: US-China Competition in Guam and the CNMI

This study comprises an analysis of US and Chinese competition for influence and control on Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands CNMI. To familiarize the reader with vast distances associated with the western Pacific, the author first provides a geographic context. This perspective is then extended to include histories and socioeconomic surveys of both Guam and the CNMI and their respective peoples. Having expressed this contextual background, the author then presents the significance of these islands to both the US and China and, more importantly, how they fit into each countrys respective national strategy. Additionally, and central to the thesis, the author describes fundamental deficits in US policy, namely nonimmigrant worker and tourist visas, which greatly aids an already aggressive Chinese information collection posture. The author represents Chinese intelligence apparatuses as distinct from the US, favoring low level collection while trending towards US-like bureaucratic development. As an extension of its asymmetric approach, Chinas broad information collection program further undercuts US strength and diminishes its relative military advantage. While admitting little can be done to ease the military challenge and response so pervasive and engrained into both the US and Chinese national psyches, the author identifies policy opportunities the US can leverage to effectively restrict Chinese access to these increasingly important islands.