MASTERS OF ANALYTICAL TRADECRAFT: CERTIFYING THE STANDARDS AND ANALYTIC RIGOR OF INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS

This paper explores analysis in intelligence and evaluates a proposal to certify and convey analytical rigor as it relates to intelligence products. To accomplish this, an examination of intelligence failures is conducted to assess the application of analytical rigor across historic case studies. The historic failures demonstrate gaps in standardization and insufficiencies in analytical rigor. This paper proposes establishing unit level certified Masters of Analytic Tradecraft MAT analysts to be trained and entrusted to evaluate and rate the standards and analytical rigor of intelligence products prior to publication. This certification model is based on research of the structure of professional civilian corporations. Implementing the MAT analyst certification will allow decision-makers the ability to judge when analysis is robust or shallow so that they can meter their trust accordingly. This certification will hold the IC accountable in their adherence to the established analytical standards, ensure compliance is properly conveyed, and promote a quality of analysis.