Financial Futures of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIL has been described as the wealthiest terrorist group in history. From seizing control of banks to extortion to trafficking oil and oil-related products, ISIL has developed diversified revenue streams. This report describes the likely evolution of ISIL finances under three specific scenarios that provide a range of conditions. These include 1 a continuation of the current campaign, 2 a negotiated settlement in Syria and political accommodation in Iraq, and 3 total territory loss through combat without a negotiated settlement or political accommodation. Conclusions stem from a workshop held at the RAND Corporations Arlington office in June 2016. Attendees included RAND and non-RAND employees, all of whom were included for their expertise in an area related to ISIL or Iraq. This project was sponsored by an interagency group within the U.S. government and conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.