The US Navy's RELO ensemble prediction system and its performance in the Gulf of Mexico

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: AD1031043 | Open PDF

Abstract:

The US Navys relocatable RELO ensemble prediction system is fully described and is examined in the Gulf of Mexico for 2010. After briefly describing the ensemble transfer ET method for the initial perturbation generation, we introduce a new time-deformation technique to generate the surface forcing perturbations from the atmospheric model fields. The extended forecast time EFT is introduced to quantify the advantages of the ensemble mean forecasts over a single deterministic forecast. The ensemble spread and its growth are investigated together with their relations with the ensemble forecast accuracy, reliability and skill.

Author(s):
Wei, M ; Jacobs, G ; Rowley, C
Author Organization(s):
Naval Research Laboratory Stennis Space Center United States
Descriptive Note:
Journal Article
Supplementary Note:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 140, 01 Jan 0001, 01 Jan 0001,
Pagination:
0021

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release;

RECORD

Collection: TR
Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_1.2.7_Experimentation; JCA_3.2_Engagement; JCA_3_Force Application; JCA_3.2.1_Kinetic Means; JCA_6.4.1_Secure Information Exchange; JCA_6_Net Centric; JCA_6.4_Information Assurance; JCA_3.2.2_Non-Kinetic Means; JCA_1.2.5_Lessons Learned; JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_4.1_Deployment and Distribution; JCA_1.4.2_Health Service Delivery; JCA_1.4_Force Support; JCA_1.3_Human Capital Management
Modernization Areas:
Cyber; Space
Communities of Interest:
Ground and Sea Platforms
Descriptor(s):
computational fluid dynamics, ocean models, lagrangian functions, naval research
Field(s)/Group(s):
Fluid Mechanics, Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
Keyword(s):
ocean ensemble prediction, ocean data assimilation, ensemble spread and reliability, forecast accuracyand skill, extended forecast time, Smagorinsky horizontal mixing, Mellor and Yamada vertical mixing, Talagrand rankhistogram
Report Date:
2013 Aug 07
Creation Date:
2017 Dec 21