The Uyghur Insurgency in Xinjiang: The Success Potential

Since 1949, the Uyghurs of Xinjiang have remained victims of Chinese social, political, religious, and economic persecution. The Chinese Communist Party CCP government has successfully denied the Uyghurs the ability to establish an independent Xinjiang. The Uyghurs, except during a limited period, continually failed to unite against Chinese rule. Furthermore, systematic Chinese policies have reduced the Uyghur population majority in Xinjiang. The CCP sensitivities in Xinjiang tie to the stability and integration of the state and thus, any secessionist movement has been suppressed. The events of 911 resulted in labeling the Uyghurs as terrorists and changed the situation in Xinjiang. The Uyghur insurgents sought support from global terrorist organizations and the visible effects of this decision can be viewed in Xinjiang post 2008. This thesis evaluates the Uyghur insurgency in Xinjiang and determines its likely potential for success. The thesis hypothesizes that the current Chinese counterinsurgency strategy in Xinjiang will continue to deny the Uyghur insurgents an independent Xinjiang. The thesis concludes that the Uyghur insurgency, without any external support and recognition, is not likely to succeed. However, due to the nexus between the Uyghur insurgents and certain terrorist organizations, the situation in Xinjiang will continue to be contentious and complex.