Cost Overrun Optimism: Fact or Fiction

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Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine if the overruns at completion projected by contractor and government personnel are unrealistically optimistic. Research has established that, once a contract is 15 percent complete, the final cost overrun will exceed the cost overrun to date W. Abba,personal communication, 1992 Christensen, 1989 Heise, 1991 Wilson,1991. Thus, a projected overrun at completion is defined as unrealistically optimistic if it is less than the present cost overrun.

Author(s):
Christensen, David D.
Author Organization(s):
Defense Acquisition University Fort Belvoir United States
Descriptive Note:
Journal Article
Supplementary Note:
Defense Acquisition Research Journal (ARJ), 22, 3, 01 Jan 0001, 01 Jan 0001,
Pagination:
0018

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release;

RECORD

Collection: TR
Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_4.5_Operational Contract Support; JCA_4.5.1_Contract Support Integration; JCA_4.5.2_Contractor Management; JCA_4.2_Supply; JCA_4.2.1_Manage Supplies and Equipment; JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_6_Net Centric; JCA_6.4.1_Secure Information Exchange; JCA_8_Building Partnerships; JCA_1.2_Force Preparation; JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_8.1.1_Inform Domestic and Foreign Audiences; JCA_8.1_Communicate; JCA_1.2.3_Educating; JCA_6.1_Information Transport; JCA_6.4_Information Assurance; JCA_8.2_Shape
Communities of Interest:
Weapons Technologies
Descriptor(s):
CONTRACTS, comparison, management, costs, contract administration, military procurement
Keyword(s):
COST OVERRUNS, PERFORMANCE, PROJECT COMPLETION, STUDY
Report Date:
2016 Feb 29