The Pure Birth Process Applied to Navy Aircraft Accidents

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: AD0860893 | Open PDF

Abstract:

Non-combat aircraft accident statistics indicate that a direct relationship exists between the number of accidents and accumulated flight hours or similarly between the accident rate and accumulated flight hours for each model of military airplane. This paper investigates the feasibility of relating accident rates directly to the total number of past accidents. Based on the pure birth process a method for predicting aircraft accidents is presented. Application of this procedure to various test cases shows interesting and useful conclusions that can be drawn.

Author(s):
Trobaugh, Diane E.
Author Organization(s):
NAVAL AIR SYSTEMS COMMAND WASHINGTON DC PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
Descriptive Note:
Special project
Supplementary Note:
DOI: 10.21236/AD0860893
Pagination:
0085

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release; Distribution Is Unlimited.

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Report Number(s):
SP-69-03
Monitor Series:
NAVAIR
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_8.2.4_Leverage Capacities and Capabilities of Security Establishments; JCA_8.2_Shape; JCA_8_Building Partnerships; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_6.4.1_Secure Information Exchange; JCA_7.2.1_Mitigate Lethal Effects; JCA_7.2_Mitigate; JCA_7_Protection; JCA_6.4_Information Assurance; JCA_6_Net Centric; JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_1.2.5_Lessons Learned
Modernization Areas:
Fully Networked C3
Communities of Interest:
No COI(s) Identified
Descriptor(s):
*AVIATION ACCIDENTS, *NAVAL AIRCRAFT, FEASIBILITY STUDIES, ACCIDENTS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, CORRELATION TECHNIQUES, RELIABILITY, STATISTICAL DATA, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
Field(s)/Group(s):
Safety Engineering
Report Date:
1969 Jul 01