SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND OPTIMIZATION IN COMPUTER SIMULATION OF INTELLIGENCE SITUATIONS: AN APPLICATION OF RESPONSE SURFACE METHODOLOGY,

Mathematical modeling and computer simulation are being increasingly incorporated into the intelligence community as valuable tools. In many cases where it is difficult or impossible to examine a system directly, a mathematical model of the system may be constructed. Examination of the system is then possible by experimenting with the model via computer simulation. This report presents an expository view of response surface methodology RSM and gives examples of how RSM may be used in simulation of intelligence situations, specifically in the areas of sensitivity and optimization. In addition limitations and remaining problems are discussed. Author