Multiperiod Adaptive Control of the Wellhead Price of Natural Gas: A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach.

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: AD0786686 | Need Help?

Abstract:

This dissertation provides a methodology for the multiperiod adaptive control of one or more policy variables belonging to a system of linear simultaneous equations by Bayesian methods. The methodology is developed in the context of a specific problem, the dynamic regulation of the wellhead price of natural gas. A mathematical model is first formulated which can probabilistically predict the magnitude of the additions to natural gas reserves and the supply of produced gas due to new contracts for specified values of the wellhead price of natural gas in each range of values assumed by these three variables. Based on the criterion of maximizing expected utility a sequential N-period optimal pricing strategy is then evaluated. Modified author abstract

Author(s):
Mehta, Cyrus R.
Author Organization(s):
MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER
Descriptive Note:
Technical rept.,
Pagination:
0121

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Report Number(s):
TR-100, AROD-9239.13-M
Contract/Grant Number(s):
DAHC04-73-C-0032
Monitor Series:
9239.13-M
 Subject Terms
Communities of Interest:
No COI(s) Identified
Descriptor(s):
*Gases, *Control theory, Economic models, Adaptive control systems, Bayes theorem, Decision theory, Stochastic processes, Mathematical models
Field(s)/Group(s):
Economics and Cost Analysis, Operations Research, Fuels
Keyword(s):
*Natural gas, *Wellhead prices, Bayesian decision theory, Prices, Utility functions
Report Date:
1974 Aug 01