THE PREDICTION OF POLITICAL FEASIBILITY,

Policymaking being directed at influencing reality, the probability that any policy-alternative will be implemented does constitute a main criterion in identifying a preferable policy. While there may be a number of policies which should be adopted for other reasons, probability of implementation within a defined time period should constitute a threshold which must be passed by every policy-alternative before it becomes a subject for serious consideration. While recognizing the importance of political feasibility, care must be taken to avoid a mistake widespread in practice and sometimes supported by theory, that feasibility becomes a dominant criterion of a preferable alternative. In this paper an effort is made to deal with the objective difficulty by proposing some methods for more systematic exploration of political feasibility in a way operationally useful as part of policy analysis. Author