STUDIES IN DEFERRENCE. XIII. PATTERN AND LEVEL OF RISK IN SOVIET FOREIGN POLICY-MAKING, 1945-1963.

Soviet behavior in risk situations is analyzed for 29 crises from 1945 to 1963. The inherent risk for the Soviet Union in each crisis situation is scaled according to The countries involved The stakes Geographical location Developmental factors Relative military strength. Soviet behavior in each crisis is scaled according to Proportionality of risk-taking to objectives actional symmetry construct Maximum Soviet bid Character of crisis outcome Timing of major moves. The behavioral variables are tested for statistical correlation with the situational variables.