A MARKOVIAN MODEL FOR PROJECTING MOVEMENTS OF PERSONNEL THROUGH A SYSTEM,

A computer-processed mathematical model is developed which simulates movements of personnel through the system, with the movements based on empirically derived probabilities, the transition rates. Significant variables are selected-such as career field, length of service, promotion rate-that distribute the system members in a vector of states upon which a probability matrix operates to produce the estimated distribution of personnel at the end of the next time interval-say a year. By iteration, the model can provide estimates for any number of years in the future. Proposed policy changes e.g., accelerated promotions can be entered into the system to forecast their effects. In establishing a model, the basic decision is the selection of variables that will characterize the members. The first requirement is that reliable input data be available for the current and preceding time intervals. Author