REPORT ON A LONG-RANGE FORECASTING STUDY

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: AD0607777 | Open PDF

Abstract:

This report describes an experimental trend-predicting exercise covering a period extending as far as fifty years into the future. The experiment used a sequence of questionnaires to elicit predictions from individual experts in six broad areas scientific breakthroughs, population growth, automation, space progress, probability and prevention of war, and future weapon systems. Results of the experiment illuminate a number of points the contents of the predictions themselves, the bases on which respondents claimed their predictions were made, the spread of expert views, the convergence of views following data feedback, the experts critiques of each others views, and not least of all, the weaknesses of the method and the possible means for improving it.

Author(s):
Gordon, T. J. ; Helmer, Olaf
Author Organization(s):
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA SANTA MONICA United States
Descriptive Note:
Technical Report
Pagination:
0131

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release;

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Report Number(s):
P-2982
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_7.2_Mitigate; JCA_7_Protection; JCA_7.2.1_Mitigate Lethal Effects; JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_4.7.2_Installation Services; JCA_4.7_Base and Installations Support; JCA_1.2.7_Experimentation; JCA_1.2.3_Educating; JCA_1.1.1_Global Force Management; JCA_1.1_Force Management; JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_5.4_Decide; JCA_1.2.5_Lessons Learned; JCA_4.1_Deployment and Distribution; JCA_1.2.6_Concepts; JCA_1.2.1_Training; JCA_5.2.2_Develop Knowledge and Situational Awareness; JCA_5.2_Understand
Modernization Areas:
Space; Microelectronics; Autonomy
Communities of Interest:
Weapons Technologies
Descriptor(s):
*MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, ECONOMICS, PROBABILITY, *SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, DETERMINATION, RELIABILITY, POPULATION, ASTRONAUTICS, WARFARE, AUTOMATION, WEAPON SYSTEMS
Report Date:
1964 Sep 01
Creation Date:
2019 Apr 01