STATUS PREDICTION OF SCHEDULED EQUIPMENT,

This paper describes a method of predicting the status of equipment and an experiment that was performed in order to gain experience with the method. In the prediction model, the movement of units of equipment from one state to another is governed not only by the transition probabilities of a Markov chain, but also by a control process that is called scheduling. In scheduling, reassignments of equipment from certain states to others are planned for various future times. Because the number of units actually available for reassignment is a random variable, expected reassignments are used in determining equipment status at each successive stage in the prediction process. Expected reassignments are used to modify equipment status at the beginning of the period and then the transition probabilities of a Markov chain are used to determine the status of equipment at the end of the period. Using the resulting predictions, the decision-maker is in a position to evaluate the future performance of the system and adjust his schedule accordingly. Author