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An Examination of the U.S. Pacific Ship Repair Industrys Workforce and Facilities Capabilities in the Event of Missile-Centric Warfare in the Western Pacific Ocean


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Using a combination of mathematical modeling and simulation, the United States' Pacific ship repair industry is analyzed to determine whether it can meet expected repair demands for destroyer-class vessels in a hypothetical future missile-centric war in the Western Pacific, such war beginning no later than 2022. Using current and ex-post facto data, a quantitative study was conducted to compare the Pacific ship repair industry's workforce and facilities capabilities against the anticipated repair need of destroyer-class vessels based on eight simulations using data from the Falklands War and World War II. A separate analysis was also conducted using growth rates for both the workforce and facilities derived from increases seen during World War II to determine whether such growth would change the outcome of the simulations. Although this study was quantitative in nature, Chapter two is a selective historical survey of the ship repair industry through 2021. A brief historical overview of missile technology and its impact on the evolution of naval warfare tactics is also provided to provide context for the methodology.



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