We collected, analyzed and synthesized additional longterm data on the resilience and vulnerability of Alaskan boreal forests toecosystem state change following wildfire or fuel reduction management. This research revisited site networks established during thecompleted SERDP project RC02109, which focused on identifying factors controlling ecosystem vulnerability to state change afterdisturbance in black spruce (Picea mariana) forests, the vegetation type that dominates Department of Defense (DoD) lands in InteriorAlaska. At the time of initial measurement, sites were relatively recently disturbed (<10 years after disturbance events). Our overarchingobjective was to determine whether the mechanistic links among fire, soils, permafrost, and vegetation succession predictive of statechange immediately following disturbance remain robust predictors over longer timescales. Our data confirm that managers can useearly postfire data to predict vulnerability to ecosystem state change after wildfire because tree seedling regeneration and soiltemperature regime are entrained soon after fire. In fuel management treatments, however, the prolonged window of coniferrecruitment will require longerterm (e.g., decadal) observations of composition to predict successional trajectories.