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Quantifying Resiliency Risk Metrics Through Facility Dispersion


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During the last century, airbases were attacked at least 26 times in an effort to destroy the enemy at its base. Attacks on military airbases impose prohibitive losses to critical infrastructure, which in turn impacts the maintenance of air power projection. The primary enemy threat facing infrastructure today is the use of ballistic and cruise missiles to disrupt an airbases ability to launch and recover aircraft. Over the last decade, ballistic and cruise missile technology has grown to allow the worlds most powerful countries to achieve a nascent threat to forward operating bases used in security campaigns. Planners can reduce impacts from ballistic and cruise missile attacks on airfields by incorporating a number of resiliency measures, including dispersal of critical infrastructure assets, such as aircraft fuel containment and conveyance equipment. This research presents an airbase resiliency assessment capable of quantifying facility dispersal and risk tolerance levels in an environment threatened by missile attack. Model performance was evaluated using a case study from Osan AB, Republic of Korea. The models distinctive capabilities are expected to support planners in the critical task of analyzing and selecting the design strategy that maximizes airbase resiliency against the threat of ballistic and cruise missile attack.



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