DID YOU KNOW? DTIC has over 3.5 million final reports on DoD funded research, development, test, and evaluation activities available to our registered users. Click HERE
to register or log in.
Software for Explicitly Probabilistic Mathematics,
MITRE CORP MCLEAN VA
The conventional way to estimate quantities for decision making purposes is to employ informed judgment about the applicable estimating relationships equations, algorithms, models and the values of their constituent parameters. More often than not, one or more key parameters are not known with certainty, and informed judgment takes the form of a subjective point estimate guesstimate. Many practitioners are content to use the resulting point estimate for the result. The more diligent will re-do the calculation combining estimates of upper and lower bounds of the input parameters to estimates upper and lower limits for the result. Such diligence is facilitated by the increasingly convenient spread sheet computational packages for personal computers. This paper describes software for incorporating uncertainty directly and explicitly into the calculations to yield a probability distribution as the result rather than a set of point estimates. The software permits the user to represent the uncertain parameters by any of about sixteen probability density functions.
This article is from 'Proceedings of the MIT/ONR (Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Office of Naval Research) Workshop on C3 (Command, Control, and Communications) Systems (6th) Held at Cambridge, Massachusetts on 25-29 July 1983,' AD-A138 614, p48-57.