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Probabilistic Seismic and Geotechnical Evaluation at a Dam Site,
MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE DEPT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
This report examines the use of probabilistic methods in dealing with the problem of potential earthquake-induced liquefaction of foundation soils at an example dam site located in the central United States, near the New Madrid earthquake zone. The example dam is assumed to be a 1-mile long rolled-filled embankment founded on a 100-ft deep deposit of interbedded alluvial gravels, sands, silts, and clays. The study is seen as an opportunity to examine probabilistic concepts and procedures in the framework of an example engineering project. In this context, the main practical value of a probabilistic approach is that it permits more informed decision making about further data acquisition, additional engineering analysis, and if necessary, remedial action. The specific aim of the study is to show how probabilistic procedures complement and help to reinterpret the results of deterministic earthquake-induced liquefaction analysis. The procedures focus on evaluating the impact of the different sources of variability in the input parameters on the uncertainty in performance predictions, and they permit results of the liquefaction analyses to be seen in the broader framework of assessment of earthquake-related dam failure risks.
This article is from 'Proceedings, Seminar on Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering Held at Vicksburg, Mississippi on 21 September 1982,' AD-A136 497.