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Accession Number:
ADP002309
Title:
Approximately Bounded Risk Regions,
Corporate Author:
GRUMMAN AEROSPACE CORP BETHPAGE NY
Report Date:
1983-07-15
Abstract:
A Grass Root estimate consists of dividing a complete project into identifiable activities which taken together include all required tasks - a Work Breakdown Structure WBS. The cost to complete each activity is separately estimated, usually based on a mixture of experience and analogy with previously completed similar tasks. These WBS element estimates are then added to become a total cost estimate. Usually manhours are estimated and dollars are found by applying the rate applicable to each skill code. Also various additional factors are also included, such as indirect allocations, GA and fee. These factors add some computing complication but do not change the basic approach, so they will be ignored here. An uncertainty analysis covers the same ground. It uses the same WBS. However, the cost estimates of the individual WBS elements are expressed as probability distributions rather than point estimates. Then it adds the distributions to obtain a total probability function. This resulting function expresses the range of possible costs in terms of their probabilities of being achieved.
Supplementary Note:
This article is from 'Management of Risk and Uncertainty in Systems Acquisition: Proceedings of the 1983 Defense Risk and Uncertainty Workshop Held at Fort Belvoir, Virginia on 13-15 July 1983,' AD-A136 230, p129-134.
Pages:
0006
File Size:
0.00MB
