A statistical based analysis methodology was investigated as the basis for the development of a simplified, inexpensive to operate, reliable munition lethality assessment model for use on desk-top personal computers. The model evaluates the effectiveness of warhead blast, fragmentation, and axially oriented kill mechanisms on numerous target vulnerable components. This model has utility in assessing the performance of warheads against all types of air, sea, land, and personnel targets. The advantage to the munition designer of having this analysis tool is the ability to quickly tradeoff critical warhead and delivery system parameters which most affect the lethality of fragmentation warheads, utilizing natural fragmentation, preformed fragmentation, or aimable fragmentation concepts. The performance of traditional axial munition components, such as shaped charge jets, explosively formed penetrators, and kinetic energy projectiles is also modeled. Lethality and vulnerability modeling, Fragmentation, Blast, Axial penetrators, Vulnerable components, Desk-top computer, Target geometry, Munition parameter.