The arms transfer is modeled using KSIM, an enhanced version of cross impact analysis. The cross impact technique of forecasting is developed from its origin in the Delphi procedure through several of the key improvements to the original method. The KSIM approach to cross impact is discussed in detail, and is tailored to model arms transfers. A method of obtaining initial parameter estimates from and existing data base is described. The model is run and several proposed arms transfer policies are simulated. The implications of these policies are then analyzed.