Institute for Defense Analyses Alexandria United States
The U.S. Army Office of The Surgeon General OTSG tasked IDA with developing human response models for five prospective non-contagious biological warfare agents, using the methodology contained in Allied Medical Publication 8C NATO Planning Guide for the Estimation of CBRN Casualties AMedP-8C. The five agents considered in this document are brucellosis, glanders, Q fever, staphylococcal enterotoxin B SEB, and tularemia. For each agent, the authors propose parameters and values for models of infectivity, lethality, incubation period, and duration of illness. The authors also describe profiles of illness over time for each agent based on symptoms and their associated severity, using the scale developed in AMedP-8C. The work described in this document is based on an extensive review of available literature and subsequent evaluation of existing models, experimental data sets--both human and animal--and clinical case studies.