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Assessing the Capability of Advanced Geophysical Classification Techniques to Inform Minimum Separation Distances for UXO Remediation (Poster)

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Institute for Defense Analyses Alexandria United States

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Introduction From 2007 to 2017, the Environmental Security Technology Certification Program ESTCP sponsored a series of live-site demonstrations to assess the capabilities of newly developed advanced geophysical classification AGC technologies to detect and classify buried targets of interest TOI unexploded ordnance UXO, inert and surrogate munitions, seeds, and any other objects for which the site team agrees that removal is required. These technologies have been shown to detect TOI and reject clutter with a high probability of detection and low probability of false alarm, saving the DoD in remediation costs. Previous retrospective analyses summarized the capabilities of AGC to differentiate TOI from clutter without taking the size of the detected objects into account. The capability to predict the size of a buried object could allow the DoD to more appropriately set the minimum separation distance MSD in UXO remediation projects, thus saving more in remediation costs. We have therefore conducted a retrospective analysis of the ESTCP live-site demonstrations in order to determine the capabilities of AGC to inform the MSD. Results For 104 Ranked Anomaly Lists RALs from 10 live-site demonstrations, IDA retrieved the actual and predicted sizes for every TOI. The sizes were binned into small 50 mm diameter, medium 50 mm and 100 mm, or large 100 mm categories. A confusion matrix was created for each RAL, and the numbers of TOI in each category were assessed. In particular, attention was paid to the number of TOI that were predicted to be in a smaller category than their actual size, as this type of error would lead to a dangerously short MSD. We found that size predictions were correct for the majority 90 of TOI, and when predictions were incorrect, they tended to err on the side of caution predicted larger than reality 7 of the time. Only 3 of predictions were unsafe predicted smaller than reality, and in only one instance out

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Technical Report



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Approved For Public Release;

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