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Functional Mapping Approach to Incorporate Epistemic Uncertainty in System Reliability Assessment

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Vanderbilt University Nashville United States

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A functional mapping approach was developed to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty sources in reliability and uncertainty sensitivity analyses with multi-disciplinary time-dependent simulations. Adaptive surrogate modeling techniques were developed for problems with spatial and temporal variability, coupled multi-disciplinary models, and reliability analysis with multiple limit states. The prediction of model error in untested configurations was achieved by focusing on model form error in the governing equation instead of discrepancy in the model output. The methods were illustrated for a hypersonic vehicle panel under aero-thermo-mechanical loading, using four coupled disciplinary models.

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Technical Report,01 Dec 2014,30 Nov 2018



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Approved For Public Release;

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