Air Command And Staff College, Air University Maxwell Air Force Base
Traditional analysis and prediction of political policy relies principally on expert judgment. Augmenting expert judgment with analytical models, based upon Game Theory, purportedly enhances the accuracy of predictions. The specific claims and methodology of Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita offer an example of such analysis for review and evaluation. This review explains his methodology, investigates his claims of prediction accuracy, evaluates his ability to mitigate analytical biases, and assesses two of his 2009 predictions for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Overall, the approach does not reduce the amount of synthesis or judgment required from the analyst.